DOES POPULATION DENSITY HELP DETERMINE WHERE TO REOPEN AMERICA?

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DOES POPULATION DENSITY HELP DETERMINE WHERE TO REOPEN AMERICA?

The last time I looked at NYC - Manhattan has a population density of over 66,000 persons per sq. mi. and Corona - Queens neighborhood has a density of 216,000/sq. mi. I compared that extreme to the state of Alaska with a population density of only 1 person per sq. mi.  

My point was that  'one-size-fits-all' guidelines or restrictions do not ensure health and safety nationally and they do not work at the state level either.

 In my native Minnesota, the BIG city of St. Paul where our governor lives the population density is 5,818/sq. mi. Similarly, Minneapolis has 7,019 persons per sq. mi. In contrast, Cooke County has a density of 3.72 persons per sq. mi. and Lake of the Woods County has 3.1 persons per sq. mi.

That is a ratio greater than 2000:1!  (7,019:3.1 = 2,264:1)How could anyone imagine that one-size solutions would fit all the counties of Minnesota? People who live in the nine county metro.

The reopening of Minnesota has to be set by some standard, why not by population density?

 Plans to reopen could be set county by county or city by city, based on population density. It is easy to determine hard to argue and a good general measure. The state could monitor the progress of relaxed standards. 

 We must allow the virus to spread at a slower more controlled rate, (flattening the curve) if we cut off its spread completely, we will face an outbreak again sometime soon in the future. Herd immunity requires herd exposure, preferably at a controlled rate of infection.

 I wanted to look at the population density of the COVID hot spots across the U. S. today and compare their stats to their population density. I can guess that they are not going to be linear but that in general the higher the density the hotter the spot - i.e. - more cases, more deaths.

Here are the top five largest cities in the U.S. by population
  1. NYC - 26,920 per sq. mi. COVID Hotspot 1/3 of all cases in the U.S. to date. 
  2.  L.A. - 7,545 per sq. mi. COVID Hotspot
  3. Chicago - 11,943 per sq. mi. COVID Hotspot
  4. Houston - 3,662 per sq. mi. 
  5. Philadelphia, PA - 11,234 per sq. mi. COVID Hotspot
Here are the top five cities in the U.S. by population density 
  1. NYC - 26,920 per sq. mi.  EPIcenter of Covid-19 in the US  155,000 cases - 11,817 deaths
  2. Chicago - 11,943 per sq. mi.       39,658 cases - 1,795 deaths hot spot
  3. Philadelphia, - 11,234 per sq. mi. 9,696 cases - 365 deaths hot spot
  4. Los Angeles - 7,545 per sq. mi.  18,517 cases - 848 deaths hot spot
  5. San Jose, CA - 5,804 per sq. mi. 
In both cases, 4 out of 5 of the highest population density 'BIG' cities are also COVID hotspots. 

 So it appears that on the surface, that population density does play into the spread of COVID-19. 

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Various writings from the past
The Road Not Taken

At Home In MN   


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